Way back in November, just after the season started, I did a schedule analysis and prediction post. I rated the competition and broke the season down into chunks to make a guess at the Spurs record month-by-month. Let’s take a look back and see how I did.
We are three months into the season and just passing the halfway point so I think it will be informative to see how my month to month predictions were — and extrapolate that to the season totals — but let’s start with how I evaluated the competition. Remember, my final total had the Spurs going 61-21.
Rating The Compeition
Here is my original grouping of teams:
- Elite: Miami, Thunder, Lakers
- Good: Knicks, Bulls, Celtics, Pacers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Nuggets
- Mediocre: Sixers, Nets, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Blazers, Jazz
- Lousy: Bobcats, Raptors, Pistons, Cavaliers, Magic, Hawks, Wizards, Bucks, Rockets, Suns, Kings, Warriors, Hornets
I obviously missed badly on the Lakers. They are mediocre at best. If I did it over today, I’d move the Bucks, Hawks, and Rockets to mediocre. The Warriors I’d put in mediocre and maybe good. I’m not sold on them, but they are far better than I thought they would be. The T’Wovles — with their injuries — and the Sixers — still without Bynum — really should be in the lousy. I’d move the Celtics down to mediocre. Otherwise, I’m pretty good with my ratings.
November: My Prediciton was 12-5, Actual was 13-4
In my analysis, November was our toughest month of the year by far. Tough teams, lots of road games, and lots of back-to-backs. I was deciding between 12-5 and 11-6. I went with 12-5 partially because we were returning so many people from a team that played really well together. I thought we’d lose one of the road pair of @Pacers and @Celtics. We took them both. I’ll give myself a pretty accurate prediction on this one and we’ll call the Spurs +1.
December: My Prediction was 11-5, Actual was 12-4
I missed on losing an early home game, but I got that game back when we dropped the back-to-back against the Jazz and Blazers. I nailed the two of three in the Celtics, @Thunder, and @Nuggets. My final total was off by one because I had us losing a game to the Mavericks at the end of the month. Again, I was pretty close and again the Spurs were +1.
January: My Prediction was 11-4, Actual was 12-3
I’m seeing a pattern. I didn’t see a loss to the Hornets so I was off there. I also didn’t see the Lakers and Wolves being so bad so I got my loss back in the Lakers-Grizz-Wolves-Grizz stretch where I thought we’d be 2-2. Lastly, I had us going 6-1 to close out the month and we didn’t drop any of them. We tried, but we didn’t. Yes, Spurs +1.
Summary of My Predictions
The Spurs are +3 on my 61-win prediction. We’ve missed a game or two from Tony, a handful from Tim, and a few weeks from Manu. And still we are playing better than I thought we would be. I have to be happy.
I had us going 9-2 in February and that is going to be tough with the Nets-Bulls back-to-back and then the Clippers-Warriors back-to-back. Still, I can’t see me being off by more than one game.
I like 11-3 in March. Lots of home games. The Thunder game is 4th game in five nights for the Thunder so I really like our chances to take that one. There are also plenty of mediocre teams in the month.
I have 7-2 in April and I think this is the one I could miss by more. We have some tough games, start the month with 4 in 5 (with the Miami game that ends March), a couple back-to-backs, and Pop may want to rest guys. I think we hit the first of April with 16-17 losses, but if we don’t win 61 it is because Pop takes his foot off the gas to get ready for the playoffs.