Well, it’s finely here. Game 1 of round two between the evil Los Angeles Clippers and the saintly San Antonio Spurs. This Fanalysis is brought to you by Dan and Jeff from Spurs Dynasty, Mark from PtR, Eric from nowhere, and Bart and Wayne from right here.
We hope you enjoy!
Q1: In the first half of game 1, which will prevail: The team playing and tired, or the team rested and rusty?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
I think the Clippers, the team playing tired, will probably get up to an early 8-10 point and be up barely at halftime. I think they’ll also be desperate early in order to steal the first game. I also think the Spurs will have a hard time getting back into their game rhythm. The last time they had anywhere close to this much time off was the all-star break. They weren’t nearly as sharp after the break as they were before it. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
I’ll go with “rusty”, but I also think there’s a chance they are too amped up from so much time off and try to win the whole game in the first half. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
I am worried about a slow Spurs start and the Clippers played fairly deep in game 7. The true advantage in the first half of game 1 will be our preparation. I think the Clippers might appear sloppy just from the change up in styles of opponents. I can see them trying to a play an overly physical game like the Memphis series and the refs not letting it go. Memphis also didn’t challenge their perimeter D as much as we will. |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
The Clippers are not only tired but also banged up (injuries to CP, Blake, Butler) from a highly physical series with Memphis. Not sure if 2 days’ rest will be enough, but I expect LA to still be energetic, given their youthful lineup. The key for the Spurs is to shake off the rust quickly and best case scenario, knock the Clips out early. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
Both. Or, neither. I think the two will balance each other out, and the game will remain relatively close (and probably a bit sloppy) heading into halftime, before we open the game up in the 3rd quarter. |
Q2: What area of the game do you think will be a bellwether for this series?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
Fast break points. I expect the Spurs to run these guys to death. They are tired and banged up. Run, run, run. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
Chris Paul’s assist numbers and number of shots. If he’s averaging 10 or more assists per game, San Antonio is in for a long series. If they can keep him in the 6-7 range, it means other players aren’t as involved and the Spurs are shutting down secondary guys. I think if Paul is taking 20 shots per game, the Spurs win easily, because those are going to be contested shots where he could not find someone else an open look. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
My first reaction was 3 point shooting, but after some more consideration, points in the paint. If we win the paint, that means Griffin and Jordan aren’t getting easy baskets, and it also means Tony is probably getting some floaters, roll guys are finishing, and Duncan might be dunking. |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
Three-point shooting. Both have prolific shooters, and the three-ball has been crucial in building leads or leading comebacks for both teams. I’m hoping the Spurs’ defensive numbers in the first round aren’t a fluke, but if it is, then wins indeed could come down on who can make those long distance shots. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
I want to go with foul calls/FT attempts, as there seems to be a lot of noise surrounding the ‘flopping’ Clippers. (To my mind, having watched him play the Spurs regularly over the last several years, Chris Paul is one of the most egregious floppers in all of the NBA.) It will be interesting to see how the refs call it. Points in the paint will also be a big one. San Antonio had their way inside against the Jazz, a team with a supposed edge in the front court. The Clippers might be the one team that doesn’t hold that edge over us. The play of Evans and Martin will be of particular interest. They played a vital role in Round 1 against Memphis, but I think the series against the Spurs will be a huge step up for the Clippers from that last series, and effort and intimidation won’t be enough. |
Q3: The Clippers bench was absolutely huge for them in the Game 7 win over the Grizzlies. How do they match up with the Spurs bench? Who has the edge?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
I think the Clipper’s bench play in the fourth quarter was a bit of a fluke. They are a mercurial group and all of them were on. I don’t think that will happen again. Plus, the Spurs bench is way better than the Grizzlies. I think the Spurs bench will destroy them. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
The Clippers have the 3rd highest scoring bench in the league per game in the playoffs so far, but the Spurs have been #1. I think the Clipper bench was effective against Memphis primarily because of their bangers, Martin and Evans. I’m not sure those guys are going to as effective against Diaw, Splitter, and Duncan. I also think they lose something defensively in the backcourt with their bench. No one is going to mistake Nick Young and Mo Williams for Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier. Spurs bench will win the series. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
Spurs bench has the edge. Mo Williams is an overrated All-Star, but he is a good player (despite a poor shooting series against Memphis). Nick Young and Eric Bledsoe are highlight players so their impression can be better than their true impact. I don’t think either will be as efficient against us. Kenyon Martin is a good role player but offensively he only took 20 shots in the 7 games (7 in game 7). Our passing and pick and roll are good enough to make him a non-factor on defense. |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
It’s not evidently noticeable during the regular season, but the Clippers bench has emerged in the playoffs. Nick Young is like a taller, more erratic version of Gary Neal. Eric Bledsoe is crazy athletic and built like a truck for a guard. Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin do the dirty work underneath and get LA extra possessions. But I think for at least players 6 through 8, the Spurs have the better group in Manu, Jax, and Splitter. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
The Spurs bench holds the edge over every team in the playoffs. I fully expect our bench to blow open a few games, much as they did in the Jazz series, and hold an edge in almost every statistical category over the Clippers’ bench. |
Q4: How does Pop guard Chris Paul?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
Pop will run several guys at Chris Paul. Danny Green, Tony Parker, and Gary Neal. I think all three, maybe not Gary, will pick him up full court. It won’t cause turnovers, but I think the additional wear and tear of having to make turns, spins, and be in dribble position will take its toll. Green has the length to bother passes as well. If Pop gets bored, he might also throw Kawhi at him. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
Straight up, no help, with either Parker or Green and perhaps the occasional dose of Kawhi Leonard. The strategy will be the same as it was against the Hornets: make CP3 score 30 to beat you. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
I think Tony has to play him as much as possible. I’m sure Green, Manu, and maybe Leonard all get some chances too. In the pick and roll, I’m sure we’ll mix it up, but I’d rather see Paul shooting jumpers than hitting Griffin or penetrating himself. We need to have our other defenders stay home. We can’t let Paul collapse the D and get good looks for Williams, Young, Butler, and Foye while Griffin, Jordan, Martin and Evans are just waiting on clean-up duty. Paul will be a handful which is why he was a top finisher for MVP. We need to limit everyone else. |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
Huge doses of Danny Green, some servings of Tony Parker, and maybe even a bit of Kawhi Leonard. To some extent, length bothers Chris Paul a lot more than faster or physical players, because it disrupts his view of passing lanes. I’d also like to see Tony make a leap defensively and limit Paul, although Parker might have to sacrifice some of his offense should that happen. It will also be interesting to see how Pop will guard Paul on pick-and-rolls. CP doesn’t have a David West-type player who can draw out the big man on the pick-and-pop, so I guess Pop will opt his bigs to show just enough to prevent Paul from getting space on his jumpers, while a third or fourth defender tries to reach in to disrupt CP’s dribble penetration. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
I think he guards him the way he always has: one on one, make him a scorer, take away his facilitating and involvement of other teammates. (The same as we always guarded Steve Nash.) Chris Paul is a deadly player, and if he can beat the Spurs on his own, more power to him. But everybody else on the team is reliant upon Paul to be better than average (and better than their normal). If we take everybody else away and let Paul have his way, it will be an easy and short series.I also think we see a lot of Danny Green as the primary guard on him. He acquitted himself quite well guarding him one-on-one in the regular season, and we don’t want Parker chasing Paul all around the court. |
Q5: How do you think Boris Diaw will match up with Blake Griffin?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
If Blake’s knee isn’t markedly better, then very well. In truth, I think Boris is probably the best of the Spur’s big defenders against Blake. I also think we’ll see some Stephen Jackson and Kawhi Leonard on him. They don’t have the bulk to handle him, but they have the length and quickness. Additionally, it will force Blake to play defense on the perimeter. Between small ball and playing Diaw and Bonner, I think Blake will have an abysmal time in this series on the defensive end. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
I’m concerned about this one. And I won’t be shocked at all if Pop ends up using Blair more than we think. Without a true post up game, Blair’s lack of length against Blake doesn’t hurt, but Blair’s foot speed might be an improvement over Diaw. In addition, Blair is solid on the pick and roll and Griffin has already shown he struggles guarding rolling bigs. Diaw will start, sure, but I think Blair may be a valuable tool against Captain Kia. I actually like Diaw matched up against DeAndre Jordan, Reggie Evans, and Kenyon Martin better. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
Blake Griffin is an All-Star but his game is still pretty raw. I think Diaw will be able to play him without excessive fouling and make it tough on him. Offensively, Diaw is more of a facilitator in the Spurs offense. Griffin can mostly hide on him even when Diaw makes a long 2 or 3. When Diaw has the ball on offense, it’s more important what the other defenders are doing than his. |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
I honestly don’t have a clue. Blake Griffin’s back-to-the-basket game is awkward, but his face-up game is devastating when he combines those little crossovers and spin moves to create space. I’m skeptical if Diaw can keep up, so I expect Splitter or maybe even Bonner with his so far sound low post defense to get their reps in trying to defend Blake. I will say this though — I’d rather the Spurs stick to single coverage of him (maybe throw surprise double teams at times just to confuse Griffin) rather than risk their shooters getting good looks. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
I think Boris will continue to surprise us with his strong individual post defense. Griffin is most deadly in transition and on the move. Once the game is in the half-court and he is in isolation on the block, he doesn’t particularly frighten me. I think Boris can easily move him off his spots and make life very frustrating for him, especially with his decided size advantage. I also think we might get to see a bit more Blair in this series. Griffin and Blair don’t differ that much in height. |
Q6: When the Clippers go to Martin and Evans, how does Pop counter?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
Tiago and Bonner. Those two are a nightmare for Martin and Evans to cover. Tiago’s cutting off the screen and Bonner’s 3-pt shooting mean that both guys will be pulled away from the basket. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
I’m not sure Pop is going to give a rat’s rear end about who is on the floor in the front court for LA other than Griffin. There’s not a matchup amongst the group that I would not give the edge to for the Spurs. As I said before, I think even Blair matches up favorably with a guy like Evans and Pop is probably going to rotate through his bigs based on which Clippers he wants guarding Tim or Tiago and who he wants chasing Bonner around the edge. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
Pop seems committed to his rotation for the most part, so barring foul trouble, Splitter and Bonner will get the most minutes against them. As long as our wings help out on rebounding, this lineup should be fine. Bonner will pull one out of the paint, or will have good looks. Splitter should look good on the pick and roll with Manu as usual. I’m hoping we get to see some Duncan-Martin. |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
Spread them out with Matt Bonner. Evans has only one elite skill which is offensive rebounding, but will be useless if he’s drawn way out on the perimeter. Martin has also gotten old and barely registers post-up plays on offense, so a Diaw-Bonner pairing could be worth a look. I expect K-Mart to get a lot of time defending Duncan though, knowing how DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin will get killed by the legend. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
I don’t think Pop needs to change much of anything. We’re the 1-seed; they need to counter to us. We’ll stick to our normal rotations, and we’ll give Martin and Evans a nice dose of the Splitter-Ginobili pick and roll and see what they do. Or see how they feel about the pick and roll with any of our big men. I think the bigger concern should be for the Clippers and where they get offense from when those two are on the court. |
Q7: After Chris Paul, which Clipper player do you fear the most?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
Mo Williams with a nod to Nick Young. The only way the Clippers are a threat in this series is if Mo catches fire the whole time. Or Nick catches fire when Mo isn’t there. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
There’s a tie for second: Mo Williams and Nick Young. I think the only way the Spurs drop a game is one or both of those guys have a crazy shooting game, like Williams did in the Clips win earlier this year. That’s why I think Pop forces Paul to be a scorer and not a distributor. Stay home on the shooters and get back in transition and this could be a short series. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
I can’t decide between Young, Williams, and Foye. Whoever is making threes that night… |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
Eric Bledsoe. Yep, I’m scared of probably the 8th or 9th guy on the roster. He was a game-changer against Memphis, as LAC played fast every time he was on the floor, a huge contrast to the slow-it-down preference of CP3. He’s also shown to be a capable defender who can disrupt an opponent’s perimeter attack, which not coincidentally, represents the head of the snake for the Spurs. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
There is no one player; it’s an amalgam of ‘random hot perimeter shooter X’, whether that be Randy Foye, Caron Butler, Nick Young, Mo Williams, or Eric Bledsoe. One of those shooters could get hot and help to swing a game. Bledsoe also has the possibility of playing better than average defense on Parker. |
Q8: What question didn’t I ask that I should have?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
Both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are battling some injuries, will this impact the series? Yes. Absolutely. The Clippers only have a chance against the Spurs if both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin play out of their minds. Coming off the long, grueling series against the Grizzlies has those two not only tired, but not moving well either. As I said earlier, the Spurs are going to jack up the pace and make them both run hard up and down the court the whole time. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
The Spurs won the season series 2-1, but should have lost one of those games, but for a fluke CP3 turnover. Why will the playoffs be different? And the answer is: Because the Spurs played the Clips before the late season acquisitions and before they were really rolling. And because there is no better coach in a 7 game series than Pop. And because the game where the Clips blew out the Spurs, Parker did not play. And because I don’t think either Paul or Griffin are healthy. And finally, because, at the end of the day, I don’t think the Clippers are the better team. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
Are there any takeaways from the Spurs first round going into this series? All the role players played well. In the playoff preview, we answered who we thought might take a step back in the playoffs. Manu had a bad series scoring, but Bonner, Neal, Kawhi, Green, Splitter, Diaw, Mills, and Blair all played well overall. Stephen Jackson caught me off guard. He clearly stepped it up for the playoffs, and I feel stupid for doubting his impact. I see Jackson having another good series. I guarantee Manu will do better than his 34 points on 33 shots (1.03 PPS, 1.41 career and 1.54 this season). You also could have asked about the back to back which I think is an advantage to the road team, us. |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
How much of a difference the coaches will make. Vinny del Negro has been much-maligned his entire coaching career, but the man just outfoxed Lionel Hollins and the Grizzlies. Vinny has shown some flexibility in changing his lineups and trusting young guys, although Pop remains superior not just in in-game adjustments, but perhaps everything else. We know what both teams’ offenses are capable of, so it should come down to who’s able to come up with effective defensive schemes. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
Does Parker need to dominate the PG match-up for the Spurs to win the series? The answer is ‘no’. The Spurs are so much deeper and more experienced, Parker doesn’t need to outplay Paul for the Spurs to win. I think the two will play to a draw a few games, and each will have one or two superlative games. But Paul needs to be everything and more for the Clippers to win; Parker can be average (by his standards) and the Spurs can still easily win. In fact, Ginobili might be more important in this series. |
Q9: In how many games will the Spurs win the series?
| Wayne Vore @WayneTBF |
I’ll be shocked if this goes more than four. My feeling is that only one of the games is moderately close. Spurs margin in this series is 15+ points/game. |
| Bart Herridge @BartTBF |
Five. I expect one game where the Clips shoot the lights out, the Spurs focus lags, and the defensive attention to detail wanes a bit. Let’s call it Game 4 and the Spurs finish up in SA in Game 5. |
| Eric Blase @BlaseEW |
Four. The Spurs are winning games that they aren’t even playing well in because of how well rounded and deep they are. We didn’t play great in game 1 against the Jazz and won by 15. We shot poorly in game 4 and gave up a pitiful run to the end the game, but still won. I just don’t see the Clippers stealing one, and every game belongs to the Spurs. |
| Mark V @sbdavis_PtR |
I’ve been saying five games at the very beginning, so I’ll stick to that. But here’s how I see it breaking down: one of the first two home games will be won by the Spurs down the wire, the other a blowout. Clippers regroup to take a close Game 3, but Spurs eke out a thrilling Game 4 victory to bury LAC in a 3-1 hole, setting up a ho-hum closeout win at home. |
| Jeff @saspursdynasty |
5. The win streak finally ends in LA in Game 3 or 4; the Spurs close out the series at home in Game 5. |
